Firstly, you may want to lie down in a darkened room after reading this forecast. Now, bear in mind this is not our 'official' forecast, but as it's coming from the ECMWF, and the CFS is increasingly singing the same tune, it's a forecast which we simply can't ignore. So here goes,

Midday models as follows ... Hi-res UK Met Office suggest thundery rain Wales, parts northwest England, Scotland and Northern Ireland between 1am and 4am... Then focus on NW England, east Ireland, west Scotland 4am to 7am ... Possibly heavy NW Wales, NW England and southern Scotland 7am to 10am ... Focus then across northern

The UK Met Office model for October, November and December below), continues to show a cold blob of water remaining in the Atlantic west of the UK and Ireland, with warmer water off the eastern coasts of the USA. Notice how the Indian Ocean has cold to nearer normal levels, and

Midday GFS just in, here's what it says for the thundery rain ahead. Tuesday evening, 7pm to 10pm....thundery showers north & West Wales, NW England, west Scotland...   Tuesday evening 10pm to 1am Wednesday morning ... thundery showers/rain northern England, parts of western Midlands, southwest Scotland, Irish Sea, west Ireland...   Wednesday morning 1am to