The latest output from the Beijing climate model has just been released and it continues to show colder water in the mid Atlantic as we head into spring next year. The chart below shows that cold water and also notice that the ENSO is neutral with neither La Nina or El

Is there trouble brewing in the Arctic Ocean to start the winter? Here's the graph of the Arctic Oscillation from Weatherandvines and the CFS model. Look how negative the AO is forecast to be (the solid black line going to late December). That indicates lighter than average westerly winds around the north