Okay, first off, let's start by saying that the JAMSTEC model is not amongst my favourites. In fact, here's the forecast it made for last winter (December 2015-February 2016)... And here's what happened ... Not exactly bathed in glory when you look at the UK, but take a closer look. Notice the warmth

The NAO has hit the headlines this week as a letter to the journal, Nature Geoscience, claimed that the UK Meteorological Office had improved forecasts up to a year ahead. Now, this was based on running a model more times than previously, and identifying factors which could influence accurate prediction of