Water in the north Atlantic remains colder than average. The chart below shows 'the blob' south of Greenland and Iceland, a situation that can be raced back to early 2014. Colder water tends to lend itself towards increased pressure and so the fact that the cold water is there, coincides well

The latest from the ECMWF 46-day model run has been published and here's what it says (remember, no charts as we can't show those but we can describe them to you). The guidance is consistent but the main difficulty is in deciding where the transition between milder Atlantic air and colder