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FEBRUARY 2018 - FINAL GUIDANCE
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Issued: Wednesday 31st January 2018
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
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+ Chilly until end of month
+ Mixed
+ Milder end

FACTORS AFFECTING FEBRUARY 2018 FINAL GUIDANCE
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+ High pressure becomes feature, although whether west or east uncertain
+ Analogues in strong agreement building higher pressure close to UK
+ La Nina forecast to remain weak but having a significant impact on circulation
+ Arctic remains above average
+ Water temperatures west and around the UK & Ireland are near average

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ High pressure does not build or is weaker
+ Jet stream may be over or closer to UK & Ireland instead of split

OVERVIEW
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There is a strong signal for February to be a colder month.
A battle between cold and milder weather is expected, this very much dependant upon where higher pressure builds.
Latest suggestions are that the high is mainly over or north of the UK with a more east to northeast flow affecting many southern areas bringing colder weather here.
Mixed weather in the middle of the month and perhaps briefly milder before the cooler conditions return.
By the end of the month conditions become milder again.
It is worth highlighting that we do not expect a 'severe' spell of cold weather.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th
High pressure to the west this week with a trough extending through central Europe.
The jet stream may be west and south of the UK.
There is a risk of some wintry showers in the far southeast, but mostly southern England and Wales will be chilly and dry.
Perhaps more unsettled in Scotland and milder as fronts brush to the north.

8th to 14th
High pressure collapses south through the UK and Ireland.
It is likely that there will be plenty of drier weather around with some bright spells.
A jet stream closer to northern parts of Scotland bringing the risk of some rain and strong winds here.
Staying cool to the south but milder in the north.

15th to 21st
A ridge is expected to build again this week.
Overall the winds are north to northwesterly and so it will be feeling colder.
Wintry showers may affect many areas, these pushing south on the breeze.

22nd to 28th
Higher pressure is expected to be building to the south through this week. This brings plenty of dry weather and some good spells of sunshine.
Fronts may affect Ireland and the north and west of Scotland with a risk of some rain here.
Feeling milder for all.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very warm 10%
- Warm 20%
- Average 30%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 15%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 15%
- Wet 25%
- Average 30%
- Dry 20%
- Very Dry 10%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is moderate although low in detail.