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MARCH 2019 - FINAL GUIDANCE
Issued: Wednesday 27th February 2018
+ Rain and wind at first
+ Staying unsettled, cooler mid-month
+ Drier and warmer later
FACTORS AFFECTING MARCH 2019 FINAL GUIDANCE
+ High shifts position southwards, jet stream established
+ Weak El Nino continues but may strengthen slightly
+ QBO remains in westerly phase
+ Continued low solar activity
+ Models are in agreement
UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
+ High pressure may be further to the east
+ Jet stream may be further south
+ High may not build at the end of the month
There is growing agreement between the models about the overall evolution of the weather during March. After the fine weather of late February the early part of the month is going to come as somewhat of a shock; cooler, wetter and windier weather. It may be that the most unsettled period is towards the middle of the month. A risk here of significantly cooler weather in the north with some snow over northern hills. Conditions should get better later in the month as higher pressure builds again to the east, bringing warmer, more settled weather again.
1st to 7th
Wet and windy weather spreading east.
Significantly cooler than the end of February, although temperatures close to average.
Most rain in west.
Risk of gales.
8th to 14th
Jet stream overhead.
Unsettled with periods of rain passing from west to east.
Windy at times, risk of gales.
Rain may be heavy, mainly in west.
May be some snow on Scottish Hills and Pennines.
Temperatures close to average but may be cool in the north on a few days.
15th to 21st
Staying unsettled at first with more wind, rain and average temperatures.
Wettest weather in north and west.
Tending to become drier to the south and east as the week progresses.
Rain may last in northwest throughout.
Becoming milder south and east.
22nd to 31st
Higher pressure builds, probably over and east of the country.
Turning drier and milder for all.
Good spells of sunshine, some warm days.
- Very mild 20%
- Mild 30%
- Average 25%
- Cool 15%
- Cold 10%
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 25%
- Average 35%
- Dry 30%
- Very Dry 10%
Confidence is low to moderate.