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Rainfall totals increase while temperature decreases

by Alexi Venerus -

We are now moving into a more unsettled phase, which looks likely to continue over the next few weeks. Rainfall totals are expected to increase for most areas towards the end of this week, while temperatures will gradually ease back towards more average levels for this time of year. The latest

Time to go back to the NAO

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

  The summer months tend not to be the best for using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as a prediction tool for the coming weeks. However, as we enter late August and into the autumn months it starts to become useful again. Below is the NAO forecast from the CFSand it shows a

5 week ahead weather things to know

by Garry Nicholson -

1 - Dry start: High pressure nearby to start the week with fine conditions overall, plenty of warm sunshine on Monday. Most places stay dry into Tuesday too. 2 - Breezy easterlies: A fresh breeze in the south on Monday will tend to increase more widely into Tuesday, by then bringing

September and October analogue update, wetter?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

The weather pattern has changed and so it's time to update the analogues. Below are based on the previous 14-days and then using the 20th Century Analysis V3 to project forward for the next few months. You can see the 500hPa height anomaly showing the lower heights focused south of the British

Latest brief thoughts on the month of September

by Alexi Venerus -

Taking a quick look at the latest six-week ECMWF outlook, the model has backed away from its previous signal for much higher pressure to build across the country. However, when we compare this with other models, such as the CFSv2, there are still indications of higher pressure developing around mid-month. The

5 Weather Things to know about the Weekend

by Alexi Venerus -

The weekend is fast approaching and here are five things you should know before it arrives. High pressure is building in to allow for a temporary settling of the weather conditions. There will be some scattered showers about but these should be light and more towards coasts and hills.  Many

El Niño: What Could Winter Mean for UK Farmers?

by Alexi Venerus -

After this summer's severe drought, the key question for farmers may be whether the autumn into winter rainfall provides much needed soil moisture without arriving so heavily that it creates flooding, erosion and waterlogging. As we begin the transition into Autumn with then winter next in line we are all watching

Is this the end of hot, dry summers for several years?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

  I mentioned this forecast from the IRI in Monday's Look Ahead video. It shows how the prediction is for wetter than average conditions for the three months of Oct/Nov/Dec across most of the British Isles. The previous three months forecast (Sep/Oct/Nov) was dry and so this suggests that things become wetter

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