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Forecast pressure keeps on rising

We have all had our fingers burnt in the past as pressure was forecast to rise, only to be disappointed when the expected improvement in conditions failed to materialise. However, we now have several days and good consistency between models that an improvement in conditions is ahead. Here's the forecast from several

Weekly Rainfall Anomaly

Good day all, Even though this week some relatively high totals of rainfall are expected mostly due to some heavier showers, the forecast is coming up with some drier weeks ahead (at least drier than the normal for this time of year). That means that still we may see some rain,

5 things for the weekend

🌧️ Unsettled Conditions: Showers remain frequent, some heavy with a risk of thunder and hail. 🌦️ Mixed Skies: A blend of cloudy periods, brief sunny spells, and passing showers across much of the area. 🌬️ Shifting Winds: Winds gradually turning northwesterly, helping to bring drier air from the west

Signs of a Warm Blast Next Week

In yesterday's Musing, Simon wrote about the warmer weather ahead next week. I've included a synoptic chart showing the 500mb heights for next Thursday (a week from tomorrow) below: A sharp ridge to the east with a sharp trough to the west means southerly winds - a warm air source! Depending

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to mid-July

We are already thinking of mid-summer in the 6-week forecast, and with the current unsettled weather, all eyes are focused on when fine weather may return. Overall an improvement is likely mid-month and it could become warm. Then we get into more uncertain conditions with model signals being weak, but for now

Rising temperatures but still rain?

We have further signs from the 15-day GFS Ensemble of temperatures rising at the end of next week. The 15-day temperature and rainfall graph below is for central England and shows the warmer air. Notice there are still some green rainfall bars on there. They aren't very high and so probably indicating

Pressure building mid-month? More evidence!

So we are building the picture of pressure rising end of next week. Here's the 6-week meteor gram for central England from the ECMWF. I've highlighted the dates we are interested in (from around 14th June to 30th June). Notice the bottom graph which is pressure and see it's above average. Look

5 Weather Week Things To Know

It's the first week of summer, and the summer seems to have forgotten! We are in for a changeable week. It could be worse, but most of us will be seeing rain and showers at times. Here are your 5 Weather Week Things To Know ... 1. A fair start to the week

Hints of an improvement in 10-days?

Don't get excited, but in this unsettled pattern, any sign of something a little better is going to be welcome. Yes, I know that for some of us the week ahead isn't too bad, but the question is being asked about if and when high pressure will return. Well, yes it will

Uncertainty remains

Hello all Well there are some ongoing discussion regarding the comeback of the high pressure towards mid-June. Even though this is still the most possible scenario, as you can easily see from the Ensembles graph below (www.meteociel.fr) there is a big spread between the different model runs. But the bold red

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