You are here
Home > Musings (Page 6)

Musings

A cool and wet period to come

by Filotas Paschos -

Hello everyone, Even though there is quite a mess between most prognostic models, there is an increasing signal for a more cool and wet period to arrive next week. Below graphs based on the Ensemble Forecasting technique, are quite self explanatory.     Thank you Filotas

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to late March

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

I need to start off by saying there is lots of uncertainty in the forecast below. Models are finding it difficult to deal with happenings in the atmosphere right now and so confidence in the forecast is low. Use this one as a suggestion rather than a forecast! Here's the latest from

Can we see a way through the model mayhem?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

I showed a similar chart to the one below in Monday's Look Ahead and I just wanted to reiterate what's showing on there to see if we can make some headway into likely conditions next week. The top graph shows various models (each as a coloured line). Notice that there is

5 week ahead weather things to know

by Garry Nicholson -

1 - Bright start: A fine day for many on Monday, sunny spells best in the south and east. Showers toward the northwest, snow over hills especially western Scotland. Tuesday also starts dry, and lasts much of the day in the east. 2 - Drizzly rain arrives: A warm front arriving

A look at …. past, now, next…Winter 2024 to Late-February

by John Kings -

Following on from the previous A look at...which reviewed by 10-day (decad) periods December 2023 and mid (11th -20th) January 2024 and a forecast mid-January (11th-20th) and late-January (21st-31st); with 2/3rds of the month through and with model forecasts then settling on a BIG change going into late-month a review

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to late March

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Goodness, the 6-week outlook is now stretching into late March...that must mean spring is just around the corner! A word of caution with this forecast, which you will already know if you saw yesterdays Look Ahead . There's been a change in the ECMWF forecast going into March, mostly due to higher

5 things to know for the weekend

by Filotas Paschos -

Good day all, Well the weekend is coming fast, so here are the 5 main things to know weather-wise: Any snow will be confined over higher ground in Scotland on Saturday Saturday will be rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain, this possibly heavy over east Scotland and east England. Drier and

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Ahead?

by Filotas Paschos -

Hi all, So the last few days most global forecasting models are suggesting with an increasing signal that another Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) will take on the 3rd week of February. First of all, we need to note that when a SSW event occurs the models are becoming messy. The reason

MJO update for the next month

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

It's always interesting to see where the MJO is forecast to go and to tie it in with where we are in terms of a longer range forecast. Below is the CFS MJO taking us to early March. The coloured lines are what we are interested in and see how they pass

That snow problem again

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

It's a problem that has blighted meteorologists in the UK and Ireland since the advent of modern forecasting in the 20th Century, and that problem is snow! Modelling has helped but there is still so much uncertainty surrounding it that it leaves us frustrated, although I admit we are probably still

Top