Models are starting to gather around the idea of a cold pool southeast of the UK as we head into the week after next. This mornings ECMWF ensemble picking it out nicely (chart for Tuesday 31st below). There is uncertainty over how far west to influence of the low spreads, but work on

I mentioned in Fridays Look Ahead video the latest ENSO plumes from the IRI, and I've shown them below. These are the outputs for the various climate models, each making their predictions through until March 2017. I pointed out how the median of all of these models is given a La Nina index