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5 week ahead weather things to know

by Garry Nicholson -

1 - Muggy August days and nights: An air mass with high humidity loading will reside over Britain and Ireland this week, so 'fresh' air will be in limited supply. Overnight will be rather uncomfortable especially in the south, with minima staying in the upper teens Celsius. 2 - Heat peaks

Update on rainfall conundrums this week

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Okay, so this is in no way a forecast of what's going to happen but an insight into our thinking this morning as to how rainfall develops this week. I know many of you are trying to make hay or haylage and so it's critical as to when rain arrives. Thinking right

Dry Soil In England

by Daniel Graves -

Even with a named storm rolling through in early August, there simply hasn't been enough rain to give the soils a good, sustained wetting across much of England. See the graphic below for the soil wetness status from the COSMOS-UK monitoring network from August 5, the day after Storm Floris. Much

5 Weekend Weather Things To Know

by Daniel Graves -

Happy Friday everyone! Here's 5 things to know about the forthcoming weather for the weekend. 1 - Dry England and Wales: High pressure will make a formidable ploy at dominance in southern areas, providing fine settled conditions in England and Wales.... 2 - ...Except for north/west coasts: Westerly winds remain dominant and will

NAO quick look

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Something we have not done for a while is take a look at the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast from the CFS. Here's the forecast (black and multiple colour lines) through to early November. Interesting to see the CFS wants a neutral NAO from late August which suggests a return of westerly winds

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to Mid-September

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

We are already talking about autumn, where did that come from? The evenings seem to be arriving more quickly now, but that doesn't mean summer is over. Here's what the latest ECMWF 6-Week update is suggesting.... 11th August to 17th August High pressure builds into Scotland. A northeast flow over England, Wales and Ireland. mostly dry,

5 Week Ahead Weather Things To Know

by Daniel Graves -

I realized I was supposed to write this musing for yesterday - my apologies! But we still have a week of weather ahead, so here's 5 notes for your information: 1 - Fair weather in the near term: Today and Wednesday should be substantially sunny for most. Cloud will begin to intrude

Lot’s Of Features On The Satellite

by Daniel Graves -

Yesterday afternoon, around 2pm, the satellite imagery of the British Isles showed a beautiful mix of weather features - sometimes we get lucky like that! See the screenshot below from Sat24 (after which I'll describe my colorful scribbles). Blue line - the organized weather front that dragged cloud and rain across

Not much rain England and Wales, more in Scotland

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

  I think you have sensed my frustration with the narrative around ‘Storm Floris’? Yes, windy in Scotland and some rain, but I want you to look at the forecast rainfall chart below through to the close of play on Wednesday. It hardly reveals widespread flooding does it? Why can’t we just have ‘normal’

Monday’s Storm Has Been Named “Storm Floris”

by Daniel Graves -

What was absent on the ensemble charts one week ago has now evolved into a named storm; on Monday, storm Floris will track across the northern UK bringing heavy rain and very strong winds to many areas. The image below shows the GFS forecast wind gusts (in knots) for midday

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