May 2021 – Preliminary Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - April 21, 2021April 20, 2021

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ MAY 2021 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ============================== Issued: Wednesday 21st April 2021 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Mixed start, cool + Warmer, drier mid-month + Wetter end FACTORS AFFECTING MAY 2021 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================================ + Slow decline of high pressure early

A forgettable summer ahead?

by Dr. Simon Keeling - April 8, 2021April 7, 2021

The more I am looking at predictions for summer, the more I am getting a phrase going around and around in my head .... "forgettable by being forgettable". The latest ECMWF output does nothing to dispel this phrase. It shows that, yes there will be some drier weather, but some distinct

April 2021 – Final Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 31, 2021March 30, 2021

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ APRIL 2021 - FINAL GUIDANCE =========================== Issued: Wednesday 31st March 2021 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + A cool month + Mixed throughout + An unsettled end FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2021 FINAL GUIDANCE ============================================ + Trough of low pressure over the

April 2021 – Preliminary Weather Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 17, 2021March 30, 2021

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ APRIL 2021 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Wednesday 17th March 2021 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + A cool month + More unsettled mid-month + Mixed end to the month FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2021 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE =================================================== + Higher pressure to

More on the summer of ’21

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 16, 2021March 15, 2021

S the JMA surface pressure chart is calling for lower than average pressures over the UK and Ireland for summer 2021 (June, July and August). The chart below is the same that I showed in Monday's Look Ahead video and summarised it as summer not looking too great, at least to

Spring & Summer 2021 – First look at ECMWF seasonal forecast

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 9, 2021April 7, 2021

We're getting the first sight of the ECMWF seasonal forecast for spring and summer 2020, and I wanted to get some information to you as soon as possible. It seems we have a moderately consistent story from the ECMWF. We still need to do some work on the forecast, but this

ECMWF 6-Week outlook to early April

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 3, 2021March 2, 2021

March and April can be the strongest of months as the weather goes back and forth between winter and summer conditions. I don't think this year is going to be much different, and from a look at the ECMWF 6-week forecast, it is in agreement too. Here's what is currently suggested... 6th to

March 2021 – Preliminary Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - February 24, 2021February 23, 2021

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ MARCH 2021 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Wednesday 24th February 2021 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Fair start for many, mild + Wetter, colder mid-month + Drier again later, especially north FACTORS AFFECTING MARCH 2021 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE =================================================== + High

More thoughts on March through July

by Dr. Simon Keeling - February 9, 2021February 8, 2021

In yesterdays Look Ahead I showed the latest forecast guidance from the ECMWF model (and it's all ECMWF in the next day or so as the ECMWF 6-week forecasts available today too). So, I thought I'd expand on the information in that video. Now, again, remember this is just one models output

VIdeo: Monday’s Look Ahead – ECMWF seasonal forecast through July

by Dr. Simon Keeling - February 8, 2021